Pundits often criticize the US government for overreacting to Covid, especially the excessive mandates for masks, vaccines, etc. I share their concern. But I also wonder where some of these people have been. On a list of regulatory overreaction, these mandates don’t even make my “top 100”. For decades, overreaction to tiny safety risks has been getting worse, with no end in sight.
Have you ever wondered why we must wear those annoying seat belts on full size airliners? Here’s a list of fatalities on US airline flights:
Notice only 2 deaths in the past 11 years. And even that overstates the risk of flying modern full size airliners, because (AFAIK) almost all the deaths over the past 20 years occurred in smaller commuter planes, with fewer than 5 people dying on full size airliners. So why the seat belts? We don’t wear seat belts on buses, trains, boats, etc. Why full size airliners, which almost never crash? And if they were to crash, are seat belts actually likely to save your life? (Yes, they might help you when the plane hits an big air pocket, but you aren’t even required to wear a seatbelt in mid-flight.)
BTW, People sometimes say the human mind cannot visualize astronomical distances. But the distance from the Earth to the Sun (93 million miles) is small compared to the number of safe passenger flights each year (nearly a billion). Airline safety is far, far beyond human comprehension. Analogies such as lightning strikes no longer apply:
A long-term average of 41 people die from lightning strikes each year in the United States, but that number has been continuing to trend downward thanks in part to increased awareness, safety campaigns, and growing accessibility of weather forecasts and warnings. A 10-year average is closer to 20 people killed by lightning.
As I got older, I saw one freedom after another taken away from me due to our hysterical overreaction to risk. In the 1980s, a group of us used to swim after playing volleyball, but then the pool was closed to us because it was too dangerous to allow 20 healthy young adults to swim in a small pool for an hour in broad daylight. A bar at our volleyball site was closed due to panic over potential lawsuits from people drinking too much and getting in an accident. I’m glad I got to live at least a portion of my life before the safety fanatics took over America; I can’t even imagine what it’s like to be young today. I could cite dozens of similar examples.
I don’t disagree with those who point to excessive fear of Covid, but why is anyone surprised? I’m surprised the regulations aren’t far worse. Given our history of overreaction, I would have expected us to emulate Australia. Unlike airline crashes, Covid has killed roughly 800,000 Americans, despite all sorts of social distancing, of which nearly 200,000 are less than 65-years old. Yes, we are overreacting, but it’s not like with airline crashes where the risk is entirely imaginary. Covid really is somewhat dangerous; not in absolute terms, but at least relative to the almost absurd safety of modern America.
Personally, I find the TSA to be 10 times more annoying than all the Covid regulations combined. Why aren’t senators speaking out on that issue? And as far as personal freedom, what about the 400,000 people in prison for violating drug laws? How many are in prison for violating mask and vaccine mandates?
The disproportionate outrage over Covid regulations combined with almost total silence in dozens of other areas of wildly excessive safety regulation makes me wonder whether there is some sort of hidden agenda here.
PS. Admittedly, for small businesses the lockdowns were pretty big issue, which did not affect me personally. In this post I focus on mask and vaccine mandates.
READER COMMENTS
Henri Hein
Dec 10 2021 at 1:37pm
Agreed with all your points. Especially the airplane seat belts. I have often wondered if they have saved a single life, ever. I can see they might help in severe storms, but then why do we need them at take-off and landings? In an actual crash, it’s true forward momentum can be fatal, but the seats are so close together my upper body is likely to hit the seat in front of me, even with the seat-belt. So I’m not satisfied they make any difference.
Scott Sumner
Dec 10 2021 at 1:44pm
“I have often wondered if they have saved a single life, ever.”
Good question. And I’d break that down into two parts. In some situations, say the famous landing in the Hudson River, most passengers would probably choose to put on a seat belt once informed of the situation by the captain. Have they saved in lives in other situations?
I’d guess a few, maybe when airliners overshot the runway on landing. But is it worth it to make them mandatory? Crashes are so rare.
Jerry Brown
Dec 10 2021 at 1:41pm
Yeah the TSA is excessively annoying. To the point I pretty much won’t get on a plane anymore. Good thing I don’t have to for work. Of course 9/11 was terrible and we don’t want something similar happening. But there has to be some middle ground somewhere.
Scott Sumner
Dec 10 2021 at 1:45pm
The thing with shoes is the worst.
Jerry Brown
Dec 10 2021 at 5:56pm
Yes the shoe thing is a pain. But worse was the guy telling me “Sir- please unbuckle your belt- I’m just going to put the back of my hand down your pants”. Not sure what he was expecting to find down there but I guess he decided it wasn’t too dangerous and they eventually let me on the plane. To say I was upset would be a huge understatement.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Dec 11 2021 at 10:35am
The problem with TSA is is that it is Federalized (without even the advantage of being uniform). Airports and airlines that fly out of them do not wish to have the planes hijacked. I do not see any externality or distributional disadvantage that would lead airports to underinvest in anti-hijacking procedures. Let a thousand flowers bloom.
Christophe Biocca
Dec 10 2021 at 2:01pm
I think part of the issue is you’re looking back at COVID-overreaction as if it is a done deal. It is not.
US overreaction to terrorism would have looked comparatively mild on 9/12 2001, but it is still going on 2 decades later, when we have a much better grasp on the actual risk. Some of the worst parts of airport security theater (taking off your shoes, limits on liquids, backscatter xray scanners) came into being nearly a decade into the War on Terror.
The current global response to Omicron should be a hint that we’re not out of the woods in terms of new rules being imposed. And as more people have gotten vaccinated and/or infected, the death rates continue to go down. Project the two a few years out, and COVID restrictions are going to be a real contender for “worst overreaction”.
Scott Sumner
Dec 10 2021 at 2:36pm
Yes, that’s a good point.
David
Dec 10 2021 at 5:14pm
In severe turbulence airplane seatbelts definitely save lives. If the pilot sees turbulence coming, even during cruise, seatbelts definitely won’t be optional.
Arqiduka
Dec 10 2021 at 8:04pm
Well, it is, but if you choose to ignore the light and break your nose, hard to sue the airline.
This is the real purpose of the setbelt, hence this particular example does not compare to the TSA: seatbelts are an entirely rational response to a very estimable financial risk, regardless of any mandates in this regard.
Everett
Dec 12 2021 at 11:53am
I was curious after Scott made this post without citing information as to the development of the seatbelt standard. Because on its face it makes absolutely no sense to cite statistics as to the safety of air travel in a post-seatbelt-mandate era for why seatbelts seem to be an overreaction.
https://www.airspacemag.com/history-of-flight/how-airline-industry-got-wise-seat-belts-180978271/
So it’s not just the possibility of you suing the airline, but the passenger you are thrown onto.
Scott Sumner
Dec 11 2021 at 12:56pm
I agree that there are cases where it make sense to wear seat belts, maybe even require them, like severe turbulence. But takeoffs and landings?
Arqiduka
Dec 11 2021 at 7:21pm
Hard braking and acceleration make for potential injury.
Indeed, take-off and landings requiring seatbelts all but prove the goals being limiting liability from small injury instead of maximising survival in case of accident: you’d like to be free to escape in such an instance, seatbelts hinder.
Zeke5123
Dec 10 2021 at 2:14pm
I loathe the TSA. It is unnecessary, slow, aggravating, and makes traveling with kids even more difficult. On a one to one basis I wholeheartedly agree with you that covid restrictions are not as bad.
But most people don’t fly even 10 times a year (if they did, there’d probably be more pushback against TSA). But covid mandates often impact people daily. So I think you see more resistance to covid mandates because in the aggregate they are more impactful.
Scott Sumner
Dec 10 2021 at 2:38pm
Perhaps it reflects my own situation (not much impacted.) I do understand that people like small business owners are impacted much more than I am.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Dec 11 2021 at 10:39am
But at least a vaccine mandate is a very small inconvenience compared to the good it does for other people. The externality is large.
robc
Dec 10 2021 at 3:03pm
My cheaper solution than TSA, with all the same benefit:
Put up a “Let’s Roll” poster next to the entrance of every jetway.
DeservingPorcupine
Dec 10 2021 at 4:02pm
You’re also forgetting people with young children. It has, in many places, been a nightmare for them. The last two years have easily been the least happy of my life solely because of this. (I’m 42 and have three children under the age of 10.)
Summer camps have been canceled two years in a row. At least half of our common weekend kid activities/hang outs have shut down permanently (coding, bouldering, trampoline parks, etc.).
Places that are still open make kids wear masks and segregate them into small groups that can’t interact, splitting up groups of friends, slowing down the pace of whatever fun they’re to have, and just generally being annoying.
People are afraid to have birthday parties because they’re either 1) genuinely afraid of covid, or 2) afraid of looking like Republicans for not being afraid of covid.
Throughout all of 2020, even outdoor parks were closed. I repeatedly cut chains off of public park gates so we could play there (since nothing else was open), and when the city eventually welded it, I bought an angle grinder to cut through the weld.
I hate the TSA as much as anyone, but covid hysteria and regulations have been orders of magnitude worse than anything else during my lifetime, in terms of their everyday impact.
Tyler Wells
Dec 11 2021 at 9:40am
The post that I wanted to make, but you did it much better. The groups that were most affected by the Covid overreactions were the young and the poor. With respect, I doubt Scott is a part of either group. I can only add that there is family that my son hasn’t seen for two years due to Covid.
This, of course, doesn’t negate his excellent observations on the excessive zeal for safety and for insisting on assessing risk at a societal level, and not an individual level.
Scott Sumner
Dec 11 2021 at 12:59pm
I see a lot of overreaction here in Orange County, but surprisingly little has to do with government regulations (which are widely ignored). Most is self inflicted. Our housing association just canceled the Christmas party due to Omicron. Why?
BS
Dec 13 2021 at 1:16pm
Everyone I know has horror stories of the busybodies (usually more than 1) on strata councils, in the garden club, etc. (Maybe someone should do a study.) But based on the anecdata, petty tyrannical control for the sake of control is real.
Speed
Dec 10 2021 at 5:53pm
“Have you ever wondered why we must wear those annoying seat belts on full size airliners?”
This post is about seatbelts not TSA.
This post is about seatbelts not Covid.
While the number of potentially fatal aircraft crashes is vanishingly small, the number of sudden aircraft moves due to weather or collision avoidance is greater. And there are occasionally hard landings or normal landings or rejected takeoffs with hard braking. These won’t necessarily be fatal to unbelted passengers but they can result in serious injuries.
So … while seat belts can save lives they can and do prevent injuries … which is reason enough to require them.
Michael C. Munger
Dec 11 2021 at 9:30am
Yes, what “Speed” said. That’s what I was going to post.
It may or may not be “reason enough” to require seat belts. But the REASON seatbelts are required is sudden movements, particular sharp downdrafts.
https://news.sky.com/story/air-canada-passengers-hit-the-roof-as-plane-drops-during-turbulence-11761458
You might argue that this kind of turbulence is both (1) rare and (2) predictable, so that fastening seat belts could be less universal.
So, the argument is about injuries, not deaths. And it is hard to judge how many injuries do NOT happen, since seat belts ARE required.
Reminds me of my old suggestion: Glock Airlines, where passengers choose their OWN levels of risk! https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2006/Mungercollectivism.html
Scott Sumner
Dec 11 2021 at 1:03pm
Don’t buses also have sudden stops on occasion? Imagine wearing a seatbelt on a bus.
I doubt that seatbelts in US airliners save more than a tiny handful of lives.
Philo
Dec 11 2021 at 1:38pm
Putting on, wearing, and taking off a seat belt is a rather minor annoyance, but when you multiply it by the number of U.S. passenger-flights per year (ca. 1 billion), it must vastly outweigh the good being done.
Dylan
Dec 11 2021 at 2:25pm
Do buses regularly drop hundreds of feet through the air, like multiple airplanes I’ve been on have? I remember one flight in Hawaii in the 80s, where we hit a bad path and the airplane dropped just like a roller coaster. The girl that was sitting in front of me didn’t have her seatbelt on and went up and hit the roof and ended up in the seat in front of her. Luckily, she was young and pliable and didn’t suffer any permanent damage. But, I’ve been on multiple rough flights where the seatbelt is the thing that stopped me from hitting the roof. I’m not saying they should be mandated, and flight attendants pay way more attention to them then is probably warranted by the safety record. However, you’re focusing on the wrong elements when you’re looking at efficacy in a crash and not unexpected turbulence, and you also need to consider injuries prevented, not just lives saved.
Speed
Dec 11 2021 at 7:34pm
Scott Sumner wrote, “I doubt that seatbelts in US airliners save more than a tiny handful of lives.”
And I doubt that the cost per life saved and non-fatal injury avoided (which is unknowable) is vanishingly small.
“ladies and gentlemen in order to prepare the cabin for landing please ensure that all hand carried items are stowed completely beneath the seat in front of you…your seatbacks and tray tables must be in their upright and locked position…armrests in the down position and your seatbelts securely fastened…thank you.”
That was the announcement over the aircraft PA befor PenAir 3296 was severely damaged in a “runway overrun during landing” at Unalaska, Alaska. ” … of the 3 crewmembers and 39 passengers aboard, 1 passenger sustained fatal injuries, and 1 passenger sustained serious injuries.”
https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/AAR2105.pdf
Seatbelts aren’t there to prevent deaths in a violent high speed collision with the ground (they can’t), they are there to prevent injuries and deaths in less spectacular and more common “incidents.” Things we seldom hear about.
joe
Dec 11 2021 at 9:26am
As I see it, the simple reason people/politicians are more vocal (both pro and con) about these regulations is because Covid regulations affect nearly everyone much of the time. At any one time, the number of people affected by airplane seat belt regulations is much smaller. Also, you left it hidden, can you tell us what might be the “hidden agenda?”
Scott Sumner
Dec 11 2021 at 1:04pm
Politics. I don’t recall politicians making a big deal about mandatory vaccinations for the military, schools, etc., in the past. They are using it for political advantage.
BS
Dec 13 2021 at 1:22pm
Yes. Politicians are risk-averse, and the risk they most fear is not getting re-elected. I don’t know of any formal studies, but have read a few articles that just “sounded right”, the gist of which is: behaviour leads policy (ie. politicians are weathervanes). People start minimizing exposure, formal measures follow. People start ignoring measures, formal measures are relaxed. Where the social/political culture is conformist/cooperative/safety-ist, lockdowns. Where the culture is unruly, freedom.
Todd Kreider
Dec 11 2021 at 12:43pm
The risk of dying from/with Covid for those between 1 and 18 years old if healthy is less than 1 in a million, yet many in this group are being coerced into taking a vaccine that can cause injury and death.
For college students ages 18 to 22, the risk of death from or with Covid if healthy is about 1 in 750,000 yet the are often coerced into taking a vaccine that can cause injury or death.
There are a lot of nurses who are 30 years old whose risk of death from or with Covid if healthy is 1 in 250,000 yet many are forced to get two vaccines and a booster which can cause injury or death.
Even nurses who are 45 years old only have a 1 in 50,000 chance of dying from or with Covid if healthy is 1 in 50,000 yet are often coerced into taking a vaccine that can cause injury and death.
Scott Sumner
Dec 11 2021 at 1:06pm
“The risk of dying from/with Covid for those between 1 and 18 years old if healthy is less than 1 in a million, yet many in this group are being coerced into taking a vaccine that can cause injury and death.”
As is almost always the case with your comments, the data you present is extremely misleading. Unvaccinated children are more likely to die than those who took the vaccine.
steve
Dec 11 2021 at 7:06pm
The covid vaccines are incredibly safe. The risk of dying from covid is much higher than from the vaccine.
Steve
Ken P
Dec 11 2021 at 7:54pm
We don’t force children to take the flu vaccine, even though in children death by flu is more likely than for death by covid.
I believe the vaccines are incredibly safe, at least of adults. We do know there are risks of myocarditis in young males and we know that the vaccines increase markers that predict acute coronary heart syndrome.
I don’t believe we can know long term effects at this point and may never know. In-vitro, the spike interferes with DNA repair.
Todd Kreider
Dec 11 2021 at 7:56pm
What is misleading about CDC data? Martin Kolldorf at Harvard is considered a top vaccine safety expert in the world and has been against vaccinating healthy children because their risk of death from Covid is so low and there are some risks to this new mRA vaccines including death.
Everett
Dec 12 2021 at 12:00pm
How any people are actually “healthy” by these standards?
And are these odds post-infection, or do they misleadingly include those who have yet to be infected?
Comments are closed.