When the means become the end.
“It’s too easy to drive in this city,” says Los Angeles Metro CEO Phil Washington, referring to the city that is often ranked as one of the most congested in the world. Washington’s solution to declining bus ridership is to convert many of the lanes on major streets to exclusive bus lanes, thus increasing congestion and, he hopes, forcing a few people out of their cars. Cities all over the country are proposing such “bus‐rapid transit” projects, which sound good on paper until you realize that most of them will make congestion worse, not better. Other proposals call for reducing the amount of parking available to drivers, forcing them to ride transit instead.
This is from Randal O’Toole, “Dying Transit Industry Grasps for Solutions,” Cato at Liberty, December 8, 2021.
The whole thing, which is not long, is worth reading.
READER COMMENTS
OneEyedMan
Dec 8 2021 at 9:01pm
Induced demand is real. Offer people free access to roads and they drive more often and farther. Internalizing the congestion externality helps prevent this. The flip side of induced demand is that it can be discouraged as well. In the presence of congestion pricing it is likely that the relative price of mass transit would fall, increasing public transit ridership and decreasing car ridership.
The general consensus of transit scholars seems to be that bus ridership in the US is low in large part because it is slow. I don’t see how we fix congestion until we charge for scarce road space, but when we do I expect public transit to be more appealing.
Akash Garg
Dec 9 2021 at 1:14am
That is not “induced demand.” That is the quantity demanded increasing due to a price decrease.
Stéphane Couvreur
Dec 8 2021 at 11:20pm
Exactly the same policy in Paris. Some of the unintended consequences are:
– traffic jams which probably make overall pollution worse by slowing down cars;
– incentive to use scooters which make more noise than cars;
– congestion costs which penalize businesses indiscriminately.
I am thinking congestion tax instead (e.g. London, Singapore, Sydney), but this seems unlikely in Paris.
Lizard Man
Dec 10 2021 at 10:59pm
Why don’t they just use electric scooters if gasoline ones are too loud? That is what they do in China, and electric scooters are really cheap. Surely someone in the EU can mass produce cheap electric scooters, just like they can produce cheap cars in the Eastern Bloc.
BillD
Dec 9 2021 at 7:26am
The cost of driving should be raised explicitly to cover its costs, not by taking away capacity. 1) congestion fees and/or tolling, 2) car ownership taxes, 3) fuel taxes. Only then will car alternatives be able to be evaluated fairly by both planners and the public.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Dec 10 2021 at 7:28am
How refreshing to see someone propose an ameliorating policy to address a problem rather than just grouse about someone else’s mistaken proposal.
David Henderson
Dec 10 2021 at 11:52am
Good point.
Sometimes I fail to post previous work at Econlib that relates.
Here’s a piece by Ben Powell that goes way beyond “grousing” and proposes a radical solution. It’s called “Sell the Streets.”
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Dec 9 2021 at 11:53am
Does a dedicated bus lane increase congestion in the sense of increasing the aggregate commuting time? I guess it could if the busses ran empty.
David Henderson
Dec 9 2021 at 1:08pm
It absolutely would if the busses ran empty. And given that busses typically run at close to empty, it almost certainly would.
Dylan
Dec 9 2021 at 7:04pm
But one of the reasons that buses run empty is because they are slow. You’re caught in the same traffic that you would be if you were driving, with the added inconvenience of not being able to leave exactly when you want to or go straight to your destination. If you make driving slower at the same time you make buses faster, the relative demand for each should change and we’d expect to see more ridership on buses.
One of the nice things about NYC is that taking mass transit, particularly during rush hour, is both faster and cheaper than driving. And, we don’t have the problem of empty trains or buses here.
Jeff
Dec 10 2021 at 9:52am
There’s also no reason to believe that BRT would be as slow as a regular bus. The whole point is that you can run a decent volume of buses without having to accommodate other traffic. Conceptually it’s closer to rail than it is to normal bus routes. While ridership will of course vary from project to project, a BRT system that connects a high number of people to job-dense areas (or effectively covers areas not well-served by rail) will see ridership.
O’Toole’s entire shtick is “cars and car-driven sprawl are both good and natural.” All of his work is derives from this axiom.
MarkW
Dec 10 2021 at 10:18am
But one of the reasons that buses run empty is because they are slow.
The main reason that mass transit commuting is slow is not vehicle speed but because A) it’s not point-to-point, B) often requires transfers C) requires walking at both ends, and D) requires waiting in stations. NY subway commuters have the longest commute times in the country, and it’s not because the subway tracks are congested.
And I’m not sure why planners assume that making it harder and slower to drive in cities will result in greater transit usage as opposed to more people and businesses moving to the suburbs, exurbs, and smaller metro areas. Especially at a time when crime rates are spiking in big cities and remote work options are making it easier to move out.
Dylan
Dec 11 2021 at 7:52am
I wouldn’t be too sure about this. When I commuted by subway, it was very common to have trains backed up on my route so that we couldn’t move until the train in front cleared. That, plus the fact that the cars were so crowded that you’d often have to let one or two trains go by before you found one you could squeeze onto, would easily add 7-8 minutes to my commute if I left during the very busiest rush hour time. If I left just a little earlier or later it would be very smooth, because there were just enough trains that you didn’t have to wait, but not enough that they got too backed up.
And, even during the busiest parts of rush hour, it was still faster by a good amount then trying to drive to the same place, trying to find parking within a mile of your final destination, and then walking the rest of the way. I eventually discovered that biking was faster than either though, and healthier, so I started doing that.
One thing I thought was interesting as I looked up the stats for how long the average commute was in various places, and NY subway commute was around 45 minutes. Which has roughly been my commute time my entire life no matter where I lived or worked. It was how long it took me to get to school when I was in the middle of nowhere and school was 40 miles away. And, it was the amount of time it took when I worked in the burbs and my job was 2 miles away and I walked. It’s how long it took me to drive the 13 miles from an exurb to a suburb job, and how long it took me to take the train 5 miles. I’ve had jobs shift locations on me and me move in the middle of a job, but the 45 minute rule has stayed remarkably stable the entire time across multiple modes of transit. It only finally broke when I started working from home 7 or 8 years ago.
Christophe Biocca
Dec 10 2021 at 11:22am
We have an LRT system here in Kitchener-Waterloo, running the north-south axis, with dedicated track and priority at all intersections (including special signalization so that the intersection is cleared out before it shows up). It’s only marginally faster than the express bus it replaced. In the denser areas of the cities, it’s about the same speed as taking a bicycle (the bike trail running roughly parallel to the LRT tracks).
In theory, mass transit could be faster than taking a car, but actually making that happen does not seem to be anywhere on the list of priorities.
MarkW
Dec 11 2021 at 10:58am
One thing I thought was interesting as I looked up the stats for how long the average commute was in various places, and NY subway commute was around 45 minutes.
But 45 minutes is much higher than the U.S. average
Mark Brophy
Dec 12 2021 at 4:09am
I was hoping to take the train but they require masks so I use my car, instead.
Matthias
Dec 13 2021 at 3:35am
Congestion charging works really well in both theory and practice.
It’s a shame it’s not politically popular.
Alex
Dec 14 2021 at 1:50pm
I mean, if you’re going to force people out of their cars (and let’s make no mistake, that’s where this discussion is headed), then just do it. Ban large trucks, too. I’m talking the 60ft monstrosities that move far too slowly and take up far too much room. Make all of your in-city logistics be deliverable via box trucks, about the size of the largest of U-haul trucks, and call it a day. The big trucks can deliver to a cross-dock facility outside the city limits, in an environment designed for them. Big trucks ARE efficient when used properly. It just so happens that “properly” means doing 65 down the freeway. Stopping and starting all that mass is highly inefficient, and most cities were never developed for that sort of service to begin with. They were designed to accommodate a 4-horse team and carriage at most.
As for cars, bar them from entering city limits. Inform everyone that a new rule is going into effect in 1 year, forcing cars out of the city. This gives people time to sell their cars and start using the busses before the rule goes into effect, and gives the transit system time to adjust to the new paradigm. A change of this scope can’t just be turned on like a light switch. If you violently flip this thing, you’ll have people cursing you until your dying day for it.
Step one would be to make it economically viable to get in line. Ensure that the buses go everywhere. Do that first. Without coverage, people will drive. Make it cheaper than driving, even before the ever-increasing fees to drive a car are introduced. If it costs me $10/day to drive my car in various operating costs (fuel, insurance, maint), then make that bus pass $5, and watch people begin to switch.
Step two. A year after the rule goes into effect, fine cars sighted in the city. I’d say not more than $50/day. Just enough to make people flinch, but not enough to truly bleed them. The next year, the fine goes to $100. They year after, $200. Then $400. Then impound. At the stage where cars are being impounded, it’s been 5 years. The only people still trying to drive at this point are the rich idiots who believe the laws don’t apply to them. By impounding their ride, you’re giving them real consequences. Year six, impound, arrest w/out bond, go to court. No one’s gonna do it, but the consequence is there to stick to anyone who tries.
Some things worth noting, however. This won’t work outside the cities. Mass transit efficiency works in high density. Get out in the rural world, and you’ll have a mob at your door, wearing John Deere hats, driving pickups, and asking what in the hell you’ve been smoking, because they want some. For the rural communities, a pickup truck is a tool, and not one they’ll be pleased to give up. Besides that, stopping a bus at every driveway means a stop every fifteen minutes in some areas.
The other major concern I have with the plan I’ve laid out above is that it reeks of authoritarianism. In a nation founded on rebellion and freedom from authority. Not a good look, if you ask me.
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