The Federal Trade Commission is in the news these days. Its glorified bureaucrats issued “orders” (not loving appeals for cooperation!) regarding an instance of their “wide-ranging studies that do not have a specific law enforcement purpose,” what the FTC chairman also calls “market studies.” It is a “market study” in which the “consumers” are forced to participate. This looks more like a supply-chain witch-hunt. At the very least, scapegoats are needed.
A November 29 press release of the bureaucratic agency states that it is
ordering nine large retailers, wholesalers, and consumer good suppliers to provide detailed information that will help the FTC shed light on the causes behind ongoing supply chain disruptions and how these disruptions are causing serious and ongoing hardships for consumers and harming competition in the U.S. economy.
The general causes of the current economic problems that are referred to as “supply chain disruptions” or “shortages” should be quite obvious to anybody who once read a textbook of microeconomics. In short: The pandemic brought a general drop in production, caused partly by government lockdowns and partly (if not mostly: see Goolsbee and Syverson, and Chakraborti and Roberts) by people deciding to stay at home. In a large number of industries, supply (the supply curve) decreased (shifted up)—whether demand (the demand curve) decreased (shifted down) or, like for emergency supplies, increased (shifted up). Price controls against “price gougers” triggered by the federal and state declarations of emergency prevented the price increases necessary to reestablish the supply-demand equilibrium and thus generated real shortages. Some sellers who violated the price caps (and thus had something to sell) were prosecuted; many others were scared to move supplies where most needed as indicated by price signals. These shortages in the proper sense of the word started the supply-chain incantations—from people who did not know microeconomic theory and economic history or who had a political or ideological interest in attacking economic freedom.
The reason why the pandemic contributed to inflation, defined as a not-one-shot rise in the general level of prices, is that central banks have been creating money to finance a jump in government expenditures. Between the third quarter of 2019 and that of 2021, the U.S. expenditures of the U.S. federal government increased by 40%, with a growth rate peak of 144% as of the second quarter of 2020 (compared again to 2019-3). Part of these new expenditures have been financed by the Fed, that is, by money creation. An indication is that since February 2020, the money stock (M2) in America has increased by 37%, which corresponds to an annual rate of growth of 21%. Without money creation, that is, without central banks “accommodating” a temporary decrease in global output and continuing to pump money in the economy, there would be no inflation as it seems to be developing.
The federal and state emergencies came to an end in the Fall, but part of the California state of emergency has been reconducted until March 2022 and a new one decreed in New York State. Even with these Damocles swords, it is not clear why some shortages persist. Recall that a shortage is not simply that something is expensive like, say, Ferraris or Bourgogne wine, but that something in demand is not available at the going legal market price or has a long waiting list.
Gasoline is an example of a good where, at least in America, there is no shortage and waiting lines precisely because, as demand jumped after the pandemic, prices have adjusted upward to the relatively scarce supplies, thus preventing a shortage. Something different happened in the UK for a few weeks last autumn when the fear of a shortage generated panic buying and waiting lines at service stations. A sufficient price increase would have rapidly cut quantity demanded, brought in supplies from elsewhere, and eliminated the queues. But the Petrol Retailers Association warned its members against “profiteering,” arguing that their customers would not forgive them, as if everybody preferred to queue for gasoline or go without it.
Is this old premodern or socialist ethics sufficient to create a shortage? This is a real question, but there may be something else than pure mobbish opinion: entrepreneurial merchants and shopkeepers may be scared of violating one or the other of the numerous and obscure laws and regulations that might be invoked against “profiteering.”
It is unlikely that the FTC will analyze any of these causes. Some good economists must be working there, but it is neither in their interest to remember what they learned in elementary textbooks, nor in the interest of their bureaucratic-political bosses for whom witch-hunting is easier.
The four commissioners of the FTC unanimously voted in favor of “issuing the Special Orders.” Three out of the four were nominated by President Donald Trump and one, the chairwoman, by President Joe Biden. It would have made no difference if they had been nominated all by Trump or all by Biden.
The same convergence between the two brands of authoritarianism was illustrated just yesterday when the FTC announced a lawsuit “in its own administrative court” against microprocessor maker Nvidia. The latter has been trying for more than one year to obtain, from many “regulators” in the world, permission to purchase a Japanese-owned British company. The Wall Street Journal notes:
The commission, currently composed of two Democrats and two Republicans, voted 4-0 to file the lawsuit.
READER COMMENTS
rsm
Dec 3 2021 at 7:35am
《Price controls against “price gougers” triggered by the federal and state declarations of emergency prevented the price increases necessary to reestablish the supply-demand equilibrium and thus generated real shortages. 》
Are you forgetting massive government payouts to firms? Were firms awash in money?
《Some sellers who violated the price caps (and thus had something to sell) were prosecuted; many others were scared to move supplies where most needed as indicated by price signals. 》
When the price of money itself is administered, how is every other price signal not arbitrary, too?
Jon Murphy
Dec 3 2021 at 7:54am
Not sure why you think that’s relevant to the matter of price controls.
It’s not clear to me what you mean by “price of money is administered.”
Anyway, recall that price signals are relative. If good X is a higher price relative to good Y, then that signals X is relatively more scarce than Y. The numeraire (dollars, pounds, cows, whatever) is generally irrelevant. The issue is not so much with the numeraire, but with the relative changes in price; that is where the signal lies.
Pierre Lemieux
Dec 3 2021 at 10:20am
rsm: What Jon explained is a crucial point to understand. If I give you $1 million for Christmas (“Merry Christmas!”), why would you spend it manufacturing six-finger gloves costing you $10 a pair and bringing you $0.50 a pair in revenue? It is still in your interest, just as it was before, not to manufacture a single pair of gloves whose marginal cost is higher than its marginal revenue. Or, if you prefer, instead of throwing your money through the window, you can buy a castle on the Maine coast.
Pierre Lemieux
Dec 3 2021 at 10:26am
rsm [Post Scriptum]: And if instead of being a greedy capitalist, you are a total altruist, it is still better for you to redistribute the $1 million to people you think need it instead of spending it manufacturing six-finger gloves for them.
Matthias
Dec 3 2021 at 7:36pm
The calculation changes, if the Christmas gift isn’t a lump-sum, but comes with various strings attached. Eg conditional on the number of six fingered gloves produced.
rsm
Dec 4 2021 at 1:08am
Pierre a écrit: 《why would you spend it manufacturing six-finger gloves costing you $10 a pair and bringing you $0.50 a pair in revenue? 》
Where did those figures come from?
Even granting those made-up numbers, if you believe in raising prices so the poor can’t afford your widgets, why not just go into financial markets, where returns are much higher?
Why not pursue maximum profit where the real returns are, in finance? Why not leave manufacturing to someone who wants to do it for moral sentiments (and gets their fill of profit in financial markets)?
If all you care about is destroying poor people’s demand to serve the rich, are your gloves likely to be defective (six-fingered?) anyway?
Since reading Hayek has thus far failed to convince me that prices are not simply noisy, as Fischer Black describes in “Noise”, how can we agree that inflation is something inevitable? If I see inflation as a power play, why should we fear it rather than stay ahead of it by printing faster than prices rise?
@Jon
Jon Murphy
Dec 4 2021 at 3:06am
Interestingly, this one question shows that prices are not noisy. If one’s goal is only profit for the sake of profit, then one will deploy his resources to where profit is maximized. The fact that the price one would obtain for six-fingered gloves relative to the costs (ie the profit) is less than that of other uses of those resources is exactly the Hayekian point.
In other words, if prices were merely noise, then the higher return in finance in your example could not be a signal for profit maximizers.
You asked what role prices play if a firm is flush with cash. You have your answer in your own explanation. Even if a firm is flush with cash, even if money is no object, prices signal where are better opportunities given one’s goals.
rsm
Dec 3 2021 at 8:39am
If firms received money from the government, why would they need to raise prices?
《If good X is a higher price relative to good Y, then that signals X is relatively more scarce than Y.》
If I get free money, why should price be an object?
If my financial returns keep rising faster than prices because the price of money is administered, why should I care if used car prices are higher?
Jon Murphy
Dec 3 2021 at 9:10am
Because costs of supply are only one part of the equation. Demand is the other part.
TANSTAAFL
Because scarcity doesn’t go away.
Why, then, doesn’t Elon Musk own everything in the world?
Craig
Dec 3 2021 at 11:44am
The government will do many things. Blame itself for inflation is never one of them.
The right of course wants to blame Biden while somehow overlooking Trump administration’s fiscal recklessness. The left would love to blame Trump of course, but they kind’ve want to continue spending so that angle is self-limiting so naturally they have settled on their favorite boogeyman: greedy corporations and capitalists.
I saw this recently in an article by Robert Reich entitled ‘The Real Cause of Inflation’ and of course his conclusion is that the real cause of inflation is an economy that is structurally anticompetitive. We also recently saw Elizabeth Warren bemoan ‘price gouging’ It would seem to be another reboot of “That 70s Show”
Of note of course is that Y/Y the PPI > CPI meaning that from business’ point of view the cost increases they are exceeding exceed their ability, at least in the aggregate, to pass along those cost increases to consumers.
Pierre Lemieux
Dec 3 2021 at 1:25pm
Craig: Just a little quibble on your last paragraph. I don’t think you can draw this conclusion. Since the 1980s, the PPI has increased by less than the CPI. It has followed the PCE (personal consumption expenditure) index more closely. Note also that the PPI does not include indirect taxes nor distribution costs. More generally and theoretically, if the rate of return on capital (as a proxy for profits) does not change over time, we would expect consumer prices and production costs to move together.
Craig
Dec 3 2021 at 4:13pm
Well remember this is in response to the left’s contention that greedy corporations are using inflation as an excuse to increase prices beyond the increase in the cost of their inputs. So, of course if that is the case, the very first argument against this is the relatively low inflation period following the Great Recession, ie if they have such large market power today and are exerting it today, why weren’t they exerting it in 2016?
My point is relatively narrow and focused on the last year. The 6.2% Y/Y increase in the CPI is coincident with a PPI that is higher. So we know that in the last year that businesses, in the aggregate, are experiencing faster input price increases than their ability to increase price on consumers.
“we would expect consumer prices and production costs to move together.”
I think right now with inflation its like the carrot in front of the donkey, as the business adjusts to the inflation, inflation takes the next step. It always seems you’re a step behind the inflation.
Comments are closed.