Robin Hanson and I disagree about alien visitation. While he doubts that aliens are visiting Earth right now, I’m virtually sure that they aren’t. As a result, we’ve made a bet. The terms:
1. Robin pre-pays me $10.
2. If I become convinced that aliens have visited the Earth during our lifetimes, I pay Robin $10,000*1.05^(year-2021) in nominal dollars.
3. If either of us dies before (2), my heirs keep the money and the bet ends.
Or as Robin puts it:
I proposed this bet in reaction to this tweet of his: https://t.co/8VPEXM7j5b
— Robin Hanson (@robinhanson) May 31, 2021
Why would Robin make such a bet? Because we’re best friends and he trusts me.
What would it take to convince me? Ideally, I want to see alien critters with my own eyes, but I will settle for seeing technology so advanced I can’t imagine humans made it. I would also settle for very high-quality, ample duration video of alien critters or tech, confirmed by multiple high-status media outlets.
In short, I want The Day the Earth Stood Still, but I’ll settle for anything in that general ballpark.
READER COMMENTS
Philo
Jun 16 2021 at 12:40pm
Backing up one’s opinions with bets is often practically impossible. A bet like this one would be practically impossible if the two of you were not very good friends. He trusts you to judge fairly whether aliens have appeared here, and to have the funds to pay him if he wins, and actually to pay him without fuss; that is a testament of confidence, indeed!
Matthias
Jun 18 2021 at 4:40am
You just need a neutral third party to make this bet between strangers.
robc
Jun 16 2021 at 12:56pm
I am not sure, but I think I am rooting for Robin.
Peter Gerdes
Jun 17 2021 at 12:48am
Given that I think Robin assigns a big chunk of the probability space associatted to aliens visiting us to them monitoring us for the purposes of destroying us before we become a threat I’m rooting against Robin. Hell, I think even Robin may be rooting against Robin.
robc
Jun 17 2021 at 8:03am
That is why I said I am not sure. Maybe I am more of an optomist about alien nature?
Scott Sumner
Jun 16 2021 at 1:18pm
Here are my odds:
Intelligent life is visiting Earth: 1-in-100
The UFOs being observed are spacecraft from another planet: 1-in-1000
Alan Goldhammer
Jun 16 2021 at 1:35pm
Steven Spielberg proved the existence of alien life almost 30 years ago so the bet is probably null and void.
Oleg
Jun 16 2021 at 3:18pm
And, boy, will money ever be useless to us all if they ever do show up.
Ken P
Jun 16 2021 at 3:25pm
If alien spacecraft are visiting, I would say they are unlikely to be inhabited spacecraft. It doesn’t make sense to make the long trip when you could VR the trip from home.
I agree with Scott’s assessment that alien spacecraft are 10x more likely to be visiting than the UFOs being seen are to be alien spacecraft.
Peter Gerdes
Jun 17 2021 at 12:45am
This is going to seem snarky but I really mean it.
It was sweet to see you say you are best friends. I feel we are often too reluctant to acknowledge important relationships like that or say how much friendship means to us… especially men so I was pleased.
Tom Howe
Jun 17 2021 at 9:42am
Robin should have held out for better odds. It’s because of the extremely short time frame for the bet. Think of the odds this way: in a galaxy aged 11,000 megayears, Earth has been just sitting here, reasonably habitable for 4,000 megayears; aliens could have moved in (without opposition) for most of that time. The bet endures for less than 0.001 megayears! I should hope some of my friends would give me $10 with odds like that.
Wait… maybe Robin thinks the Singularity will hit and human lifetimes will explode to some megayears? In that case, Bryan had better invest the $10 wisely, so that he can afford to payoff in a couple of megayears.
Fred
Jun 17 2021 at 3:37pm
It seems to me that the guy putting up $10,000 is a lot more confident than the guy putting up $10. A thousand times more. Hanson needs to give you at least $500 to make me think that he is serious.
BW
Jun 17 2021 at 6:48pm
Everyone should check out Mike Huemer’s most recent post about this: https://fakenous.net/?p=2365.
Comments are closed.